Politico has a story up about how Democratic congressmen hailing from more right-leaning districts might have an uphill reelection battle if they voted for cap and trade last week.
Rep. Thomas Perriello relishes an energy fight with Republicans — even here in the rural Southside.
The freshman lawmaker understands the potential consequences that he and other vulnerable Democrats face for backing a sweeping climate-change bill, and rather than ducking the issue, he’s embracing what may have been the toughest vote of his young political career. …
Like many Democrats from Republican-leaning districts, Perriello is back home this week defending what may be a game-changing vote with consequences for 2010.
Nothing unusual about this story, right? We expected Democrats from more conservative areas of town to have a tough time defending their votes on some of the more left-wing parts of Obama and Pelosi’s agenda. The fact is that being a Democrat in rural America isn’t exactly like being a Democrat in San Francisco – but unfortunately, a lot of that distinction gets lost in the House roll call and congressmen end up paying for it back home.
The interesting part to this story comes later, though. Two different people – a political science professor at the University of Virginia and an economic development consultant – offer their opinion about how cap and trade might affect voter opinion. They both say essentially the same thing. First the economic development consultant:
“What’s going to increase the price of energy more?” asks E. Linwood Wright, an economic development consultant with the city of Danville, Va., in Perriello’s district. “The things in this bill? Or crude oil going back to $150-a-barrel?”
That’s a good question, Ms. Wright! What will increase the price of energy more? Gas prices, or cap and trade?
The only problem is, why would gas prices go back up to $150-a-barrel? Is there a reason we should think that gas prices will skyrocket again? I thought the reason they were so high was because of the evil Republicans who refused to regulate the oil companies. With Democrats in control, we shouldn’t worry about that, should we?
Or maybe Democrats want gas prices to skyrocket so that no one will notice how cap and trade is silently raising the price of almost every good and service on the market. What you’re basically saying is that cap and trade will raise prices, but it won’t be as bad as skyrocketing gas prices. (If gas prices skyrocket.) So do Democrats now have a vested interest in skyrocketing gas prices so that people will be too distracted by fueling their cars to notice what cap and trade has done to the price of everything else?
Wright, though, only hints at what Larry Sabato states pretty bluntly:
However, “if the economy improves,” Sabato continued, “voters won’t find the attacks credible. Really, how is anybody — even a professional economist — to know exactly what the effect of this bill will be? It’s so entangled with the rest of the economy.”
Sabato is really just stating the facts and I don’t smell a motive of any kind here. What he’s saying is true: our economy is so big and complicated, how is any regular voter going to figure out what problems cap and trade has caused and what problems were caused by something else?
If cap and trade turns into law and prices start to rise, you can guarantee that Democrats are going to start pointing every which direction in an attempt to scapegoat the blame onto anything but their precious bill.
And they’ll hope that voters are stupid enough to believe them.